SpaceX Guides Q4 Capex to $40B as AI Revenue Jumps

SpaceX told investors to expect fourth-quarter capital expenditure of USD 35 billion to USD 40 billion, roughly double the USD 19.6 billion spent in the third quarter, according to figures reported on 25 October. Of the third-quarter total, USD 16.4 billion went to AI infrastructure, and AI revenue rose more than ninefold year on year to USD 7.6 billion, driven mainly by renting computing capacity to outside developers.

The cash arithmetic explains the guidance. Capital expenditure over the first nine months reached USD 48.1 billion against operating cash flow of USD 13.1 billion, leaving a gap that was largely covered by USD 85.7 billion of net IPO proceeds. First-quarter revenue guidance was set at USD 33 billion to USD 37 billion. If the fourth quarter lands inside its range, full-year spending would sit between roughly USD 83 billion and USD 88 billion.

Two businesses are now sharing one balance sheet. Launch and connectivity remain the operational core: Falcon 9 flew its 83rd dedicated Starlink mission of 2026 on 24 October, SpaceX has completed 122 orbital launches this year against 253 worldwide, and it delivered about 1,672 of the roughly 2,162 tonnes of mass placed in orbit globally. Starlink carried more than 11,100 satellites at the end of the third quarter and reported connectivity revenue of USD 5.2 billion.

Starship is the near-term wildcard. Booster B22 completed a static fire in the run-up to Flight 15, while the Ship article S42 still needs its own engine test campaign. SpaceX has said Flight 15, expected next month, will attempt to catch both stages at the tower, something no orbital-class vehicle has done; Elon Musk put the odds above 50 percent. A 12-hour test window at Starbase on 25 October was closed to the public with no hardware identified in advance.

For suppliers, the practical question is not whether demand exists but how the spending is financed. Capital expenditure funded by equity and debt converts into orders in tranches, and a quarter that doubles spending is followed by a quarter that normalises. Vendors exposed to satellite buses, phased-array antennas, rad-tolerant logic, high-reliability connectors and power conversion should contract for milestone billing and staged deliveries rather than a single annual commitment.

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