Amazon Q3 Preview: AWS Sold Out Through 2028, $220B Capex

Amazon reports third-quarter results on October 29, and the numbers that matter to hardware buyers were largely previewed by CEO Andy Jassy: AWS capacity for 2026 is effectively sold out, large volumes of 2027 are committed, and a meaningful share of 2028 is already reserved. The backlog stands at a record $496 billion, up three digits year over year.

Capex is the other fixed point. Amazon raised its 2026 cash capital expenditure forecast to roughly $220 billion, concentrated on AWS and generative AI infrastructure, with additional spend on robotics, semiconductors and satellites. Jassy has said even that level will not satisfy all demand in 2026 and expects a similar supply-demand balance in 2027, describing 2028 demand as striking.

The chip-level read-through is Trainium. Jassy noted specific chip lines including the Trainium series are nearly fully subscribed or largely sold out, which cascades into long-lead orders for the advanced packaging, HBM and network silicon around Amazon's custom accelerators, alongside continued Graviton CPU production.

For component buyers, the earnings call is worth parsing for three specifics: the pace of rack-level power deployment, any update on Trainium 3 volume timing, and how Amazon prices the lag between capex and revenue recognition. Data centers, land and power are long-cycle assets bought ahead of demand, so guidance details telegraph next year's component orders for server boards and power systems.

Wall Street remains split on the payoff timeline, with some analysts warning of a cash-flow wall by 2027 if enterprise AI returns lag. Buyers on the supply side should care less about the debate and more about the committed spend: $220 billion a year moving through the AWS supply chain is the single largest anchor order in the industry.