Copper at Record Highs: The Cable and PCB Bill Comes Due

Copper is the least interesting line on a BOM until it is not. This month it is not: COMEX copper has traded near 6.69 dollars a pound, within reach of the record around 6.80 set a month earlier, up roughly 5.6 percent over the month and about 30.9 percent year on year. LME three-month metal has been quoted around 14,585 dollars a tonne, with Shanghai futures near 110,600 yuan a tonne.

For anyone buying cable, wire harnesses, busbars, connectors, transformers or printed circuit boards, that is no longer a commodity squiggle. It is a cost line moving faster than most quotation cycles can follow.

Why the metal is tight

The supply side has had a bad quarter. Codelco suspended part of operations at El Teniente after a landslide in October that killed two workers. A strike at Antofagasta’s Centinela mine is expected to cut output through the second half of October, with the union warning the full effect may appear in November. Escondida, the largest copper mine in the world, is in government-brokered wage talks. Freeport’s Grasberg restart has slipped from early 2027 to early 2028, leaving 2026 at 40 to 50 percent of capacity. Chilean production in February was the lowest monthly figure since 2017, and the full year is expected to fall about 7 percent.

The clearest signal is in treatment charges. The 2026 annual benchmark for copper concentrate processing settled at zero dollars a tonne — the first time it has ever been zero, against 21.25 dollars in 2025 — and spot charges have been negative, around minus 238 dollars a tonne in early October. Smelters are paying miners for the privilege of processing ore. That is not a market with slack in it.

The new demand is not construction

Data centres have become a copper product category in their own right. A conventional server uses a few kilograms of the metal; an AI training server uses 15 to 30 kg, three to six times as much, because power delivery, high-speed links, busbars and liquid-cooling plumbing all consume it. Morgan Stanley has modelled global data-centre copper consumption at about 740,000 tonnes in 2026 rising to 1.3 million tonnes in 2028. Demand for high-end copper foil for AI server boards is estimated at around 24,000 tonnes this year, up roughly 260 percent.

Chinese buyers are restocking: the Yangshan copper premium, a proxy for import appetite, rose to 135 dollars a tonne, a four-year high, even as Shanghai exchange inventories climbed more than 50 percent from late September to around 58,700 tonnes.

Where it shows up in what you buy

• Cable and harness quotes have a short shelf life. A quote built on last quarter’s copper is a quote your supplier will reprice. Ask for the copper basis and the validity window in writing.
• Heavy-copper PCBs are the exposed end of board pricing. Two-ounce and thicker inner layers, IMS and high-power designs carry metal cost that laminate price lists do not show. When a fabricator talks about a copper surcharge, ask for the upstream reference and the date.
• Surcharges should be evidence-based, not reflexive. Gold, used in ENIG finishes, has actually fallen, and copper has moved less than some blanket increases imply. A supplier who cannot name the price round and its date is guessing.
• Connector plating and busbar alloy are substitution opportunities. Where the current rating allows, a plated aluminium busbar or a thinner copper alloy can cut metal content without a redesign of the enclosure.
• Recycled content is now a commercial argument. Secondary copper is tight but available, and some buyers are writing recycled-content percentages into contracts to hedge both price and ESG reporting.

How to buy the next two quarters

Three habits separate buyers who absorb this from buyers who get surprised. First, agree a price basis rather than a price: LME plus a stated premium, with a review date. Second, split the buy — lock the volume you know you need, leave the balance open, and avoid betting the quarter on a single direction. Third, tell your fabricator and harness supplier your forecast, because allocation, not price, is what breaks schedules in a metal market this tight. With Chinese New Year falling in early February 2027, orders for February and March material need to be placed before the end of December.

We quote cable assemblies, harnesses and boards with the metal basis stated explicitly, and our PCBA service covers heavy-copper and high-power stack-ups where the metal content actually matters. If you are re-quoting a harness or a power board this quarter, send the drawing through the inquiry form, and the connectors, terminals and passive parts around it are listed in our component catalogue.